{"mode":"announced","updated_at":"2026-10-13T03:53:42.399Z","probabilities":{"raw_24h":0.1869100055494456,"raw_48h":0.3388846609243974,"rounded_24h":19,"rounded_48h":34,"model_24h":19,"model_48h":34,"tease_tier":null,"tease_floor_24h":null,"tease_floor_48h":null,"commitment":0.83,"commitment_floor_percent":83,"signal_percent":83,"range_24h":{"lower":0.099,"upper":0.325},"range_48h":{"lower":0.218,"upper":0.486}},"signal_score":{"band":"promise","base":83,"modifiers":[],"value":83},"confidence":"low","confidence_note":"Experimental: walk-forward backtest has not beaten both baselines yet.","last_reset_at":"2026-10-11T04:01:09.000Z","age_days":2,"official_signal":{"tweet_id":"2109812360596865224","summary":"Global reset landing by EOD PST time. Enjoy","at":"2026-10-13T01:03:59.000Z","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109812360596865224","kind":"signal","score":{"band":"promise","base":83,"modifiers":[],"value":83},"signal_type":"promise","signal_tier":"likely","alert_event_id":"signal:2109812360596865224:likely","delivery_destination":"alerts","window":null},"teased_window":null,"time_window":{"start_hour":2,"end_hour":5,"label":"2 AM - 5 AM","timezone":"UTC"},"cadence":{"recent_median_days":4.3,"recent_sample":5,"weighted_mean_days":5.2,"accelerating":false},"tease_signal":null,"tease_card_note":null,"tease_post_age":null,"latest_hint":null,"hint_copy":null,"context":{"window_days":7,"since":"2026-10-06T03:53:42.399Z","evidence_ids":["2109812360596865224","2109812216212099456","2109132167112782291","2109090080497508356","2109045392684032299","2109045220411351517","2107913674593644711","2107676072871600470","2107577536779870210"],"effect":"informational_only","multiplier":1,"negative_supported":false,"state":"QUIET","since_reset":true,"reset_at":"2026-10-11T04:01:09.000Z","primary_post":{"id":"2109045220411351517","at":"2026-10-10T22:15:39.000Z","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109045220411351517","quote":"Day 6/ Reset","signal":"DONE"}},"context_copy":{"en":"Tibo, last 7 days: no new hint since the reset on Oct 11. The number above is history only.","zh":"Tibo 近 7 天：10 月 11 日重置之后没有新线索。上面的概率只来自历史。","ja":"Tibo 直近 7 日：10月11日のリセット後、新しい手がかりはありません。上の確率は履歴のみに基づきます。","es":"Tibo, últimos 7 días: sin pistas nuevas desde el reset del 11 de oct. El número de arriba es solo historial."},"wait_comparison":{"sample":8,"wait_days":2,"shorter_share":0.125,"median_days":4.3,"mean_days":5.6,"longest_days":14.4,"position":"earlier_than_most","basis":"recent_completed_intervals","window_intervals":8,"sample_end_at":"2026-10-11T04:01:09.000Z"},"wait_copy":{"en":"You have waited 2 days; 13% of the latest 8 completed reset intervals were shorter. Typical wait 4.3 days, average 5.6, longest 14.4. Recent history, not a schedule. This historical baseline uses up to 8 completed intervals. Ordinary posts and hints are not extra probability factors. Sample through 2026-10-11 04:01:09 UTC.","zh":"你已等了 2 天；最近 8 个完整重置间隔中，13% 短于当前等待。典型间隔 4.3 天，平均 5.6 天，最长 14.4 天。这是近期历史，不是倒计时。历史基准概率使用最近最多 8 个完整间隔，普通推文和暗示未作为额外概率因子。样本截至 2026-10-11 04:01:09 UTC。","ja":"待ち始めて 2 日。直近 8 件の完了したリセット間隔の 13% は、現在の待ち時間より短いものでした。典型 4.3 日、平均 5.6 日、最長 14.4 日。直近の記録であり、予定表ではありません。履歴ベースの確率には直近最大 8 件の完了した間隔を使います。通常の投稿や示唆は追加の確率要因に含めません。サンプルは 2026-10-11 04:01:09 UTC 時点。","es":"Llevas 2 días esperando; el 13 % de los últimos 8 intervalos completos entre reinicios fueron más cortos. Espera típica 4,3 días, media 5,6, la más larga 14,4. Es historia reciente, no un calendario. Esta probabilidad histórica base usa hasta 8 intervalos completos recientes. Los mensajes habituales y las insinuaciones no son factores adicionales de probabilidad. Muestra hasta el 2026-10-11 04:01:09 UTC."},"wait_token":{"en":"wait 2d · last 8: 13% shorter","zh":"已等 2 天 · 近8次 13%更短","ja":"待ち2日 · 直近8件 13%が短い","es":"espera 2 d · últ. 8: 13% más cortas"},"model_token":null,"range_aria":{"en":{"h24":"Reset chance in the next 24 hours: 19%, range 10–33%","h48":"Reset chance by 48 hours: 34%, range 22–49%"},"zh":{"h24":"未来 24 小时重置概率：19%，区间 10–33%","h48":"48 小时内重置概率：34%，区间 22–49%"},"ja":{"h24":"今後 24 時間のリセット確率：19%、範囲 10–33%","h48":"48 時間以内のリセット確率：34%、範囲 22–49%"},"es":{"h24":"Probabilidad de reset en las próximas 24 horas: 19 %, rango 10–33 %","h48":"Probabilidad de reset en 48 horas: 34 %, rango 22–49 %"}},"milestone_watch":null,"evidence":[{"code":"recent_cadence","params":{"recent_median_days":4.3,"recent_sample":5,"weighted_mean_days":5.2},"label":"Recent cadence","detail":"a reset every ~4.3d across the last 5 (weighted mean 5.2d)","href":"/timeline"},{"code":"last_reset","params":{"date":"2026-10-11","age_days":2},"label":"Last reset","detail":"2026-10-11 (2d ago)","href":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109132167112782291"},{"code":"common_window","params":{"window_label":"2 AM - 5 AM","timezone":"UTC"},"label":"Most common window","detail":"2 AM - 5 AM in UTC","href":"/timeline"}],"model":{"version":"rate-v3","window_intervals":8,"half_life_days":60,"effective_sample_size":32.1,"base_daily_rate":0.187},"backtest":{"sample_size":347,"brier":0.122,"baseline_brier":0.123,"rate_v2_brier":0.121,"better_than_naive":true,"better_than_rate_v2":false,"status":"experimental"},"signal_tier":"likely","alert_event_id":"signal:2109812360596865224:likely","latest_alert":{"id":"2109812360596865224","kind":"watch","state":"active","source_at":"2026-10-13T01:03:59.000Z","summary":"Global reset landing by EOD PST time. Enjoy","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2109812360596865224","score":83,"window":null,"corrected":false}}