{"mode":"model","updated_at":"2026-10-24T22:14:49.036Z","probabilities":{"raw_24h":0.3890401292986312,"raw_48h":0.6267280363925667,"rounded_24h":39,"rounded_48h":63,"model_24h":39,"model_48h":63,"tease_tier":null,"tease_floor_24h":null,"tease_floor_48h":null,"commitment":null,"commitment_floor_percent":null,"signal_percent":null,"range_24h":{"lower":0.213,"upper":0.599},"range_48h":{"lower":0.415,"upper":0.799}},"signal_score":null,"confidence":"low","confidence_note":"Experimental: walk-forward backtest has not beaten both baselines yet.","last_reset_at":"2026-10-23T17:40:51.000Z","age_days":1.2,"official_signal":null,"teased_window":null,"time_window":{"start_hour":3,"end_hour":6,"label":"3 AM - 6 AM","timezone":"UTC"},"cadence":{"recent_median_days":2.4,"recent_sample":5,"weighted_mean_days":4.4,"accelerating":true},"tease_signal":null,"tease_card_note":null,"tease_post_age":null,"latest_hint":null,"hint_copy":null,"context":{"window_days":7,"since":"2026-10-17T22:14:49.036Z","evidence_ids":["2113492187770175603","2113162277688070445","2112432076767289678","2111918635849801739"],"effect":"informational_only","multiplier":1,"negative_supported":false,"state":"QUIET","since_reset":true,"reset_at":"2026-10-23T17:40:51.000Z","primary_post":null},"context_copy":{"en":"Tibo, last 7 days: no new hint since the reset on Oct 23. The number above is history only.","zh":"Tibo 近 7 天：10 月 23 日重置之后没有新线索。上面的概率只来自历史。","ja":"Tibo 直近 7 日：10月23日のリセット後、新しい手がかりはありません。上の確率は履歴のみに基づきます。","es":"Tibo, últimos 7 días: sin pistas nuevas desde el reset del 23 de oct. El número de arriba es solo historial."},"wait_comparison":{"sample":8,"wait_days":1.2,"shorter_share":0.125,"median_days":2.4,"mean_days":2.6,"longest_days":4.3,"position":"earlier_than_most","basis":"recent_completed_intervals","window_intervals":8,"sample_end_at":"2026-10-23T17:40:51.000Z"},"wait_copy":{"en":"You have waited 1.2 days; 13% of the latest 8 completed reset intervals were shorter. Typical wait 2.4 days, average 2.6, longest 4.3. Recent history, not a schedule. This historical baseline uses up to 8 completed intervals. Ordinary posts and hints are not extra probability factors. Sample through 2026-10-23 17:40:51 UTC.","zh":"你已等了 1.2 天；最近 8 个完整重置间隔中，13% 短于当前等待。典型间隔 2.4 天，平均 2.6 天，最长 4.3 天。这是近期历史，不是倒计时。历史基准概率使用最近最多 8 个完整间隔，普通推文和暗示未作为额外概率因子。样本截至 2026-10-23 17:40:51 UTC。","ja":"待ち始めて 1.2 日。直近 8 件の完了したリセット間隔の 13% は、現在の待ち時間より短いものでした。典型 2.4 日、平均 2.6 日、最長 4.3 日。直近の記録であり、予定表ではありません。履歴ベースの確率には直近最大 8 件の完了した間隔を使います。通常の投稿や示唆は追加の確率要因に含めません。サンプルは 2026-10-23 17:40:51 UTC 時点。","es":"Llevas 1,2 días esperando; el 13 % de los últimos 8 intervalos completos entre reinicios fueron más cortos. Espera típica 2,4 días, media 2,6, la más larga 4,3. Es historia reciente, no un calendario. Esta probabilidad histórica base usa hasta 8 intervalos completos recientes. Los mensajes habituales y las insinuaciones no son factores adicionales de probabilidad. Muestra hasta el 2026-10-23 17:40:51 UTC."},"wait_token":{"en":"wait 1.2d · last 8: 13% shorter","zh":"已等 1.2 天 · 近8次 13%更短","ja":"待ち1.2日 · 直近8件 13%が短い","es":"espera 1,2 d · últ. 8: 13% más cortas"},"model_token":null,"range_aria":{"en":{"h24":"Reset chance in the next 24 hours: 39%, range 21–60%","h48":"Reset chance by 48 hours: 63%, range 42–80%"},"zh":{"h24":"未来 24 小时重置概率：39%，区间 21–60%","h48":"48 小时内重置概率：63%，区间 42–80%"},"ja":{"h24":"今後 24 時間のリセット確率：39%、範囲 21–60%","h48":"48 時間以内のリセット確率：63%、範囲 42–80%"},"es":{"h24":"Probabilidad de reset en las próximas 24 horas: 39 %, rango 21–60 %","h48":"Probabilidad de reset en 48 horas: 63 %, rango 42–80 %"}},"milestone_watch":null,"evidence":[{"code":"recent_cadence","params":{"recent_median_days":2.4,"recent_sample":5,"weighted_mean_days":4.4},"label":"Recent cadence","detail":"a reset every ~2.4d across the last 5 (weighted mean 4.4d)","href":"/timeline"},{"code":"last_reset","params":{"date":"2026-10-23","age_days":1.2},"label":"Last reset","detail":"2026-10-23 (1.2d ago)","href":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2113492502355562875"},{"code":"common_window","params":{"window_label":"3 AM - 6 AM","timezone":"UTC"},"label":"Most common window","detail":"3 AM - 6 AM in UTC","href":"/timeline"}],"model":{"version":"rate-v3","window_intervals":8,"half_life_days":60,"effective_sample_size":34.4,"base_daily_rate":0.389},"backtest":{"sample_size":364,"brier":0.128,"baseline_brier":0.13,"rate_v2_brier":0.127,"better_than_naive":true,"better_than_rate_v2":false,"status":"experimental"},"signal_tier":null,"alert_event_id":null,"latest_alert":{"id":"2113492502355562875","kind":"reset","state":"confirmed","source_at":"2026-10-23T17:40:51.000Z","summary":"Reset observed by operator; awaiting Tibo's confirmation.","url":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2113492502355562875","score":null,"window":null,"corrected":true,"confirmation_source":"operator_observed","observed_at":"2026-10-23T17:40:51.000Z","observation_message":"Codex reset confirmed\nOur checks show that Codex usage limits reset around 17:40 UTC on Oct 23.\nTibo hasn’t posted a confirmation yet. We may update this message when he does.","confirmed_at":null,"confirmation_url":null}}