{"mode":"model","updated_at":"2026-07-25T16:02:39.462Z","probabilities":{"raw_24h":0.3619885844475844,"raw_48h":0.41567837082374437,"rounded_24h":35,"rounded_48h":40},"confidence":"low","confidence_note":"Experimental: walk-forward backtest has not beaten the naive baseline yet.","last_reset_at":"2026-07-21T16:47:15Z","age_days":4,"official_signal":null,"time_window":{"start_hour":23,"end_hour":2,"label":"11 PM - 2 AM","timezone":"UTC"},"evidence":[{"label":"Last reset","detail":"2026-07-21 (4d ago)","href":"https://x.com/thsottiaux/status/2079609157934886975"},{"label":"Most common window","detail":"11 PM - 2 AM in UTC","href":"/timeline"}],"model":{"version":"hazard-v1","half_life_days":60,"age_bucket_days":3,"effective_sample_size":19.5,"base_daily_rate":0.142},"backtest":{"sample_size":252,"brier":0.105,"baseline_brier":0.093,"better_than_naive":false,"status":"experimental"}}